EE 461 Post 7: Final Generation Scheduling
Generation Scheduling
Data Preparation
Load
Data before normalization:
original_data
= data;
Get
normalization parameters (calculated by MATLAB):
original_mean
= mean(original_data)
original_std
= std(original_data)
Normalized
predictions:
normalized_preds
= ARIMA_36_Months_Prediction{:,:}
After
selecting ARIMA as our best model to use, then a 36 months data is then
transposed to a column vector.
Using
z-score to denormalize the normalized predicted data
denormalized_preds
= (normalized_preds * original_std) + original_mean
denormalized_preds(:,
[2:10]) = []
Preparing
for generation scheduling by changing the predicted load forecast from kWh to
MWh.
Monthly
Loads = 
Using
MW for simplified load scheduling calculation.
Calculating
estimated normalized load demand power.
This is to calculate the estimated monthly load demand power.
Seasonal
Factors:
Sunlight hours, wind speed, and wind factor were also incorporated since they will affect the solar and wind farm output.
|
Month |
Load Demand (MW) |
Sunlight Hours |
Wind Speed (m/s) |
Wind Factor |
|
Month 1 |
7.5818 |
6.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
|
Month 2 |
7.5716 |
6.2 |
4.6 |
0.5333 |
|
Month 3 |
7.55 |
6 |
4.8 |
0.6 |
|
Month 4 |
7.5302 |
5.8 |
5 |
0.6667 |
|
Month 5 |
7.5134 |
5.6 |
5.2 |
0.7333 |
|
Month 6 |
7.4992 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
0.8 |
|
Month 7 |
7.4872 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
0.8333 |
|
Month 8 |
7.4771 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
0.7667 |
|
Month 9 |
7.4685 |
5.6 |
5.1 |
0.7 |
|
Month 10 |
7.4613 |
6 |
4.9 |
0.6333 |
|
Month 11 |
7.4553 |
6.3 |
4.7 |
0.5667 |
|
Month 12 |
7.4502 |
6.6 |
4.6 |
0.5333 |
|
Month 13 |
7.4459 |
6.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
|
Month 14 |
7.4422 |
6.2 |
4.6 |
0.5333 |
|
Month 15 |
7.4392 |
6 |
4.8 |
0.6 |
|
Month 16 |
7.4366 |
5.8 |
5 |
0.6667 |
|
Month 17 |
7.4344 |
5.6 |
5.2 |
0.7333 |
|
Month 18 |
7.4326 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
0.8 |
|
Month 19 |
7.431 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
0.8333 |
|
Month 20 |
7.4297 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
0.7667 |
|
Month 21 |
7.4286 |
5.6 |
5.1 |
0.7 |
|
Month 22 |
7.4277 |
6 |
4.9 |
0.6333 |
|
Month 23 |
7.4269 |
6.3 |
4.7 |
0.5667 |
|
Month 24 |
7.4262 |
6.6 |
4.6 |
0.5333 |
|
Month 25 |
7.4257 |
6.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
|
Month 26 |
7.4252 |
6.2 |
4.6 |
0.5333 |
|
Month 27 |
7.4248 |
6 |
4.8 |
0.6 |
|
Month 28 |
7.4245 |
5.8 |
5 |
0.6667 |
|
Month 29 |
7.4242 |
5.6 |
5.2 |
0.7333 |
|
Month 30 |
7.424 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
0.8 |
|
Month 31 |
7.4238 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
0.8333 |
|
Month 32 |
7.4236 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
0.7667 |
|
Month 33 |
7.4235 |
5.6 |
5.1 |
0.7 |
|
Month 34 |
7.4233 |
6 |
4.9 |
0.6333 |
|
Month 35 |
7.4232 |
6.3 |
4.7 |
0.5667 |
|
Month 36 |
7.4232 |
6.6 |
4.6 |
0.5333 |
Table 1: Denormalized monthly load demand power
with Seasonal factors
Maintenance
Allocation and Generation Scheduling:
Tabulating
generation sites and setting priorities to generation types; Solar > Wind
> Diesel Generators. This will make sure that Renewable sites are utilized
first since it is free energy and then diesel generators last.
|
|
Name |
Type |
Base Capacity |
Priority |
|
1 |
'Solar Farm Maama Mai' |
'solar' |
1.4120 |
1 |
|
2 |
'Solar Farm Mata o e Laa' |
'solar' |
1.3000 |
1 |
|
3 |
'Solar Farm Singyes' |
'solar' |
2.1300 |
1 |
|
4 |
'Solar Farm Sunergise 1' |
'solar' |
2.3000 |
1 |
|
5 |
'Solar Farm Sunergise 2' |
'solar' |
2.3000 |
1 |
|
6 |
'Solar Farm Sunergise 3' |
'solar' |
2.3000 |
1 |
|
7 |
'Wind Farm I o Manumataongo' |
'wind' |
1.3750 |
2 |
|
8 |
'Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11' |
'diesel' |
2.7650 |
3 |
|
9 |
'Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12' |
'diesel' |
2.7650 |
3 |
|
10 |
'Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.21' |
'diesel' |
1.4000 |
3 |
|
11 |
'Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.22' |
'diesel' |
1.4000 |
3 |
|
12 |
'Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.23' |
'diesel' |
1.4000 |
3 |
|
13 |
'Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.24' |
'diesel' |
1.4000 |
3 |
|
14 |
'Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.25' |
'diesel' |
1.4000 |
3 |
|
15 |
'Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.26' |
'diesel' |
1.4000 |
3 |
Table 2: Generation sites capacity and priority
By utilizing Renewable Energy sources first, it is important to make sure stable power is supplied to the customers, it is important to make sure that there are enough spinning reserves in diesel generators to account for the sudden drop in RE’s generation due to a drop of solar irradiance due to cloudy period or less wind speed. Therefore, we set the diesel generators to 80% loading only when supplying load demand as shown in the simulation output below. The excess energy from generation will be used to charge the Battery Energy Storage System (BESS).
Results
=== Month 1 (Jan)
===
Total Load: 7.58 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.38 MWh ( 27.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.35 MWh ( 27.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.58 MWh ( 27.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.62 MWh ( 27.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.62 MWh ( 27.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.62 MWh ( 27.1% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
0.69 MWh ( 50.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.50 MWh ( 54.3% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(-0.0% margin)
=== Month 2 (Feb)
===
Total Load: 7.57 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.36 MWh ( 25.8% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.34 MWh ( 25.8% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.55 MWh ( 25.8% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.59 MWh ( 25.8% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.59 MWh ( 25.8% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.59 MWh ( 25.8% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
0.73 MWh ( 53.3% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.59 MWh ( 57.6% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(0.0% margin)
=== Month 3 (Mar)
===
Total Load: 7.55 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.35 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.33 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.53 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.57 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.57 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.57 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
0.82 MWh ( 60.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.58 MWh ( 57.1% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(0.0% margin)
=== Month 4 (Apr)
===
Total Load: 7.53 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.34 MWh ( 24.2% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.31 MWh ( 24.2% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.51 MWh ( 24.2% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.56 MWh ( 24.2% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.56 MWh ( 24.2% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.56 MWh ( 24.2% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
0.92 MWh ( 66.7% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.56 MWh ( 56.6% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(-0.0% margin)
=== Month 5 (May)
===
Total Load: 7.51 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.33 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.30 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.50 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.54 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.54 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.54 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
1.01 MWh ( 73.3% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.55 MWh ( 56.2% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(-0.0% margin)
=== Month 6 (Jun)
===
Total Load: 7.50 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.32 MWh ( 22.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.29 MWh ( 22.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.48 MWh ( 22.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.52 MWh ( 22.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.52 MWh ( 22.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.52 MWh ( 22.5% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
1.10 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.55 MWh ( 55.9% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(-0.0% margin)
=== Month 7 (Jul)
===
Total Load: 7.49 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.31 MWh ( 21.7% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.28 MWh ( 21.7% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.46 MWh ( 21.7% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.50 MWh ( 21.7% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.50 MWh ( 21.7% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.50 MWh ( 21.7% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
1.15 MWh ( 83.3% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.59 MWh ( 57.3% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(0.0% margin)
=== Month 8 (Aug)
===
Total Load: 7.48 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.31 MWh ( 22.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.29 MWh ( 22.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.47 MWh ( 22.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.51 MWh ( 22.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.51 MWh ( 22.1% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.51 MWh ( 22.1% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
1.05 MWh ( 76.7% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.62 MWh ( 58.5% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(0.0% margin)
=== Month 9 (Sep)
===
Total Load: 7.47 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.33 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.30 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.50 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.54 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.54 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.54 MWh ( 23.3% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
0.96 MWh ( 70.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.55 MWh ( 56.2% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(-0.0% margin)
=== Month 10 (Oct)
===
Total Load: 7.46 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.35 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.33 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.53 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.57 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.57 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.57 MWh ( 25.0% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
0.87 MWh ( 63.3% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.44 MWh ( 52.2% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(0.0% margin)
=== Month 11 (Nov)
===
Total Load: 7.46 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.37 MWh ( 26.2% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.34 MWh ( 26.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.56 MWh ( 26.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.60 MWh ( 26.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.60 MWh ( 26.3% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.60 MWh ( 26.3% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
0.78 MWh ( 56.7% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.38 MWh ( 50.0% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(0.0% margin)
=== Month 12 (Dec)
===
Total Load: 7.45 MWh
Maintenance Sites:
None
Generation
Allocation:
Solar Farm Maama Mai :
0.39 MWh ( 27.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Mata o e Laa :
0.36 MWh ( 27.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Singyes :
0.59 MWh ( 27.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 1 :
0.63 MWh ( 27.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 2 :
0.63 MWh ( 27.5% of capacity)
Solar Farm Sunergise 3 :
0.63 MWh ( 27.5% of capacity)
Wind Farm I o Manumataongo :
0.73 MWh ( 53.3% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.11 :
2.21 MWh ( 80.0% of capacity)
Diesel Powerplant Popua 1.12 :
1.28 MWh ( 46.1% of capacity)
OK: Full coverage
(-0.0% margin)
Discussion and
Remarks:
The
purpose of this model is to create a power generation schedule for the
Electricity Power Supply for the island of Tonga, Nukuálofa. By selecting the
best load forecasting model as ARIMA, the data is then denormalized using
z-score to get the actual energy demand. Energy demand is converted to power in
MW for generation scheduling. The generation schedule will help Power Station
Operators with monthly Power Balancing of the forecasted load demand. The
generation schedule has also been made to assist the Planner in planning a
successful maintenance scheduling. Environmental factors have also been
factored into generation scheduling as it will affect the Renewable Energy
source’s output.
Prioritizing
the generation sources enables us to make sure that maximum Renewable Energy
generation is fully utilized and if load demand is not met, then diesel
generation will be supplying the remaining load. A stable power supply is very
important to the customers, therefore, there is a need for spinning reserves to
cater for the variability of RE’s output. Hence all the diesel generators are
being set to 80% loading and 20% for spinning reserves. Diesel generators have
been broken down into individual generators to make sure that it is not
overloaded and have better maintenance scheduled.
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